Just a few days remain until the 2015 NBA Draft is held Thursday night in Brooklyn. The rumor mills are in full swing and there’s more mock drafts than any of us have time to read or even care about.
What we do know is that the Pacers should be able to select a solid player that can contribute for years to come with the 11th pick. 43 isn’t so bad, either. And, it wouldn’t surprise anyone if they traded back or made another deal.
[A complete list of the 36 draft prospects who worked out for the Pacers.]
Pacers President of Basketball Operations Larry Bird will make the final call but in the draft room will be about a dozen minds who evaluate players for living, and especially for this moment.
In this draft, which executives around the league have raved for being talented, there are numerous quality frontcourt players that could help the Pacers’ aging bunch. The three names heard most: Frank Kaminsky (Wisconsin), Myles Turner (Texas), and Trey Lyles (Kentucky). There’s even a chance Willie Cauley‑Stein will still be on the board.
Jay Bilas provides his take on players the Pacers may draft at No. 11.
One well-respected analyst who covers the college game year-round in his role with ESPN is Jay Bilas, who played at Duke University from 1982-96. Bilas appeared on a conference call earlier this week. As you follow coverage and learn more about these potential players landing with the Pacers, here’s some of Bilas’ takes on those prospects and more.
(I like how Bilas analyzes players’ games rather than guessing where they will land or be a good fit.)
On Frank Kaminsky…
Well, I think Frank is going to improve. The issue is when you compare him to players who are freshmen and they have a longer way to go in improvement, and that’s where I sometimes struggle, and I think other people do too.
Just the idea, if you look at where Frank was as a freshman, and where Kelly Oubre is as a freshman or Trey Lyles, you would say, well, heck those two were better as freshmen than Frank was, well, so what, Frank is a late bloomer, he’s bloomed. Years ago when a 22‑year‑old came into the league, nobody said, ‘Well, that’s it. That is the ceiling, he can’t get any better.’
Of course Frank can get better and I think he will get better. He’ll get stronger. He’ll find his game even more than it is now. But what Frank Kaminsky is right now is more than good enough. And that’s sort of the issue is with anybody you’re betting on their potential, there is a chance they’re not going to reach it. Frank has reached a very good level of potential, and I still think he’s going to get better. But he’s a top 10 pick because of who he is, not who he’s going to be. Others are top 10 picks because of who they’re going to be. I hope that makes sense, and I explained it right.
…
I think Devin Booker and Frank Kaminsky, actually, are the two best shooters in the draft. But there are a number of other guys that can make shots. I don’t think this is a draft, honestly, that is full of great shooters. There are several guys that are good shooters, but it’s not a long list of guys that I would say are knockdown great shooters. But there is shooting available, if that’s what you’re interested in.
… I have Booker as the top shooter in the draft, and Frank Kaminsky as the top‑shooting big guy, right along with Kristaps Porzingis. He can really shoot it, but he’s not going to be around. None of those guys are going to be around past the lottery.
On Myles Turner…
My only hesitation with Myles Turner, I’m a fan of his ability level. He’s a great kid, and that’s one of the things just to go off topic a little bit about this draft that I find most compelling is this is an unbelievably high‑character draft, I mean, we’re talking about nothing but really good guys. Stars in the NBA right now for the most part are really good guys. The NBA is a great place with that. But this draft has good guy after good guy after good guy. You find yourself saying what a great kid over and over again. And I think that is going to extend a lot of their careers beyond their ability would put them.
I’m a big fan of his skill level and his length. I think he’s a good athlete. There are questions about how he changes ends and moves laterally and runs, and I’ve got those concerns. One of the concerns I have with Turner is his best performances were against the worst teams that Texas played, and I’ve done all the numbers on it. His numbers drop precipitously when you put him against teams that were over .500 in BCS conferences and in non‑BCS conference teams.
I mean, his numbers are great against non‑BCS conference teams. They drop against BCS conference teams, and they drop even further against BCS conference teams that are over .500.
On players potentially still available in the early teens…
The NBA draft will be held at the Barclays Center for the third straight year.
I tend to think there are going to be some surprises in this thing that you’re going to have somebody taken higher than expected and that’s going to put an onus on somebody else, and you could see somebody drop a little bit further.
Another guy that I think would be interesting is I don’t know if Willie Cauley‑Stein is going to be taken in the top 8. So does he drop down there? It’s possible. Another guy I really like at that spot is Trey Lyles. … (He’s) a guy that I think would be a great value pick in that neighborhood.
On Sam Dekker and Stanley Johnson’s offensive game…
Well, Sam is a good shooter. He can make shots. He’s a little bit streaky. I think he’s very athletic. He’s good in transition. He’s long, he’s got size. I like him a lot. I think he is a lottery player at the end of the lottery.
I think Stanley Johnson is a lottery pick. They’re very different. Sam is a better shooter than Stanley. Stanley is bigger and stronger, and he gets fouled more. Gets to the free‑throw line more. I think he is and can be a better defender than Sam, better rebounder. It’s just a question of how high is his motor going to rev and how consistently because that’s been the issue with Stanley Johnson. Is he going to defend at the highest level and sustain it for long stretches?
Offensively he improved his shooting. He shot 37%, 38% as a three‑point shooter. That doesn’t make him ‑‑ he’s not a good shooter. He can make an open shot. I think right now his offensive game, he’s easier to limit than Sam is. But I think he’s going to continue to get better. He’s got a lot of ability. And I rate Stanley Johnson ahead of Sam as a prospect. I think I’ve got Stanley around 10 or 11, and Sam Dekker around the 15, 16 range.
On guard Jerian Grant out of Notre Dame…
I really like him. He’s an older player. He’s been around, he’s done it all, and he’s ready to step in and play. I think he can initiate and play some point. He’s not a great shooter, but he makes shots and he can create shots and make challenged shots, very good passer. I think he has the length and athleticism to be a better defender.
I think he needs to work hard to be a better defender. I like his prospects. I’ve got him ranked about 19, I think, in that range. He’s not the most efficient, but his team required him to do a lot of different things and to be really aggressive and hunting shots, and at times take some questionable ones. He had to do that. But he’s a really good prospect, and I think he’s a first round draft pick. Then the second one you asked about was?
How do you weigh actual performance in college games analyzing a player versus analytics, workouts, drills and other ways that people look at players?
Well, they’re all related. I think it’s all part of one big picture that you get of a player. I think you have to have a balance on all of it. I’m not as big a believer in workouts because I’ve watched people workout before and was blown away by them, and they didn’t turn out to be as good as I thought they would be. Maybe I put too much into a workout and was wowed by it.
Then, there are other times when I saw somebody workout and I didn’t think they were as good in a workout or as skilled. Then you put them in a five‑on‑five game and their athleticism trumped their lack of skill which was a detriment to how they looked in a workout.
So I think it cuts both ways. I just think you have to be really careful with it. Look, everybody who has, and it doesn’t mean draft, and the quote/unquote draft analysts or other media member writer, radio guy or front office person or a fan, if you’ve put your opinion out on a player, on a bunch of players overtime, you’re going to be wrong on some. I think you have to accept that consequence and hopefully learn from it and learn how your valuation judgment works and try to file those things away and make sure that you get the most information so that you can make the best possible decision. But you better come to grips with you could be wrong, because you’re going to be wrong once in a while. You just try to limit it.
Just on the workout thing, I’ve made the analogy and others have too ‑‑ heck, I’ve done this a lot just in my enjoyment of golf. You look at somebody on the range, and you may think they’re one thing. You get them out on the course, and they’re totally different. And that cuts both ways too. That’s kind of the way I factor in workouts. It’s not as meaningful as you think.
Bilas will be one of the main analysts for ESPN’s coverage of the NBA Draft, along with Jay Williams and former Pacer Jalen Rose. Reece Davis will host their draft coverage from the Barclays Center. Coverage begins at 7:00 pm ET on ESPN.
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