Breaking Down the Brackets

By Austin Miller (@mr_atm1215)

Can you feel the madness? Cinderellas, buzzer-beaters and One Shining Moment. The NCAA Tournament is finally here, where the next three weeks are euphoric for any college basketball fan. Brackets are filled, wagers are made and madness ensues. This year’s tournament will be no different.

Filling out a tournament bracket is a crapshoot and outside of the 1/16 matchups, no game is certain. Expect the unexpected, but word to the wise, do not get over-zealous on picking upsets.

South Region

If there is one thing that is certain this year, it is the number of interesting stories and potential match-ups that will come out of this region. Kentucky enters the field as the number one overall seed. The Wildcats’ road could include a Final Four rematch with UConn, a rematch with Indiana, who beat Kentucky in December, and a potential Elite Eight match-up with Duke, 20 years after whact many consider to be the greatest college basketball game of all time.

The Favorite: Kentucky. The Wildcats will play essentially two home games at the KFC Yum Center with their opening round games. While a potential match-up with UConn does prevent a bit of a scare, but UConn will have to get by Iowa St. first. For the Wildcats to return to the Final Four, they are going to need more production from their bench. Last weekend, Kentucky’s bench was a near no-show and it cost them in the finals. The Wildcats have struggle recently with their transition defense and having a shallow bench can hurt this team if matched up against a deep team that can run the ball in transition. With that said, Kentucky is still the most efficient team in the country and still boast a starting lineup filled with future pros. If a team is going to beat them, they better bring it and hope Kentucky plays poorly.

The Dark Horse: Baylor. Had it not been for Verdell Jones III tearing his ACL, Indiana would have been the choice here. Baylor unveiled their new highlighter jerseys last weekend and finally started to play a little defense. This team has an abundance of athleticism and two potential lottery picks in their front court in Perry Jones and Quincy Miller. The big question with Baylor will be their defense. Scott Drew failed getting his team to play an effective zone defense before switching to man-to-man. If Baylor can play well on the defensive end, they are the one team in this region that could match up with Kentucky’s size and athleticism.

Cinderella: UNLV. Many experts have been on the Wichita St. bandwagon, but UNLV has already proven this season that they could be the biggest giant-killer in this tournament. The Running Rebels are a very athletic team and rebound the ball very well. Look out for Mike Moser. The transfer from UCLA is the nations best rebounder is the star of this team. He is more than capable of carrying this team all the way to the Elite Eight.

Best Round 2 (formerly round 1) Game: VCU vs. Wichita St. This game has the potential to be epic. VCU is a much different team than last year’s Final Four squad. Shaka Smart has transformed this team from a high-octane offense to a stout, high-pressure defense. Wichita St. is one of the strongest mid-majors in the field and boasts a legitimate 7-footer in Garrett Stutz, who can play inside and out. This game will be close from tip to the buzzer and should be one of the best games in Thursday’s slate of games.

Best Potential Match-up: Indiana vs. Kentucky. As fun as is would be for another Duke vs. Kentucky match-up. The fact of the matter is, Duke comes in as the weakest 2 seed and struggles to play against highly athletic teams. Just look at last years Arizona game and the game against UNC in Cameron as proof. Even without Verdell Jones, Indiana still has a high-powered offense and a legitimate big man in Cody Zeller that could get Anthony Davis in trouble. IU likes to push tempo and has the perimeter shooting to keep this game close. These two teams already met earlier this season, and it was a classic. Round two could be even more fun.

X-Factor: Perry Jones III. Anthony Davis may be the national player of the year and is easily the best player in this region, but it is Perry Jones III, who may be the most crucial player in this tournament. With Anthony Davis, the Wildcats know what they are going to get from him. Jones, on the other hand, has been wildly inconsistent. Jones had a strong showing in the the Big Twelve Tournament, but this is an entirely different tournament. Depending on his play, Baylor could go anywhere from 1st round exit to the Elite Eight.

The Upset: UNLV over Baylor and Duke. Ok this is actually two upsets, but we’ll count it as one. The Running Rebels have the make-up to go far in this tournament and are in a weak region. Baylor cannot be trusted on the defensive end and Duke struggles against athletic teams. Look for the Running Rebels to make it all the way to the Elite Eight.

The Pick: Kentucky. This the best team in the country, but what makes this group so special is their chemistry. This team plays like veterans and shares the ball extremely well. With 6 players nearly averaging 10 points a game, teams cannot double as much because of the risk of an open man burning them. Add in the fact that they are playing in fan friendly locations and it is difficult to see this team not punching its ticket to New Orleans.

West Region

The West Region is the bipolar region in this field. The top of the bracket is littered with great defensive teams with at least one quality big man, while the bottom of the bracket is filled with high-tempo, highly efficient offensive teams that are extremely guard-heavy. Michigan St. is the top seed in this region and boasts the best tournament coach in America in Tom Izzo. This region has the potential for a lot of wackiness at throughout its bracket.

The Favorite: Missouri. Although Michigan St. is the one seed, Missouri has been the trendy pick to cut down the nets from the west region. Missouri is the most efficient offensive team in the country and plays a four guard line up that plays very similar to the 2007 Villanova team. Frank Haith has done an amazing job in his first year as head coach. Kim English is the biggest match up nightmare because of his athleticism and ability. At 6-6, English can play inside and shoot from the perimeter (47% from beyond the arc). Missouri likes to play up-tempo and is entertaining to watch.

The Dark-Horse: Marquette. Marquette is one of the many teams in the bottom of the bracket that play a four-guard lineup. They love to force turnovers and get the ball in transition. No lead seems safe against this team as they have come back from double-digit deficits numerous times to win this season. Jae Crowder, the Big East POY, is a special player to watch and is the heart and soul of the team. Buzz Williams has a squad that can match Missouri’s quickness and has enough offensive fire power to keep up.

Cinderella: Murray St. Murray St. enters the tournament having only lost one game the entire season. Isaiah Canaan is a legit All-American and has ridiculous range, we’re talking Jimmer range. Murray also plays a four-guard lineup and can fill it up quickly. The committee seemed to put every small team in this part of the bracket, which should make it interesting to see how well these teams all match-up. Murray may be a 6-seed, but I can easily see them making it to the elite eight.

Best Round 2 Game: Memphis vs. St. Louis. Both of these teams were highly under-seeded according to most experts and statistical formulas. Josh Pastner brings in a Memphis team that struggled in the non-conference, but is now rolling. This game will see the return of Rick Majerus, who once coached Utah to a national runner-up appearance in 1998. Memphis will look to use their length and athleticism to push the pace, while St. Louis will look to turn this game into a grind-it-out affair. Watch out for Will Barton. He is Memphis’ best player and is a special talent to watch.

Best Potential Match-up: Marquette vs. Missouri. Two teams with an abundance of guard talent that like to force turnovers and shoot from outside. What more could you ask for? Watching this game will be a work-out in and of itself.

X-Factor: KFC Yum Center. It sounds weird, but the Yum Center is the biggest factor in this bracket. Murray St. will be playing within its own state and the game will essentially be a home game for the Racers. With a possible third-round match with Marquette, the Racers could easily pull off a big upset during the first weekend games.

The Upset: Davidson over Louisville. Louisville is a great defensive team, but is mediocre at best offensively. Davidson comes in as one of the best three-point shooting teams in the field and does turn the ball over often. Louisville began playing more press in the Big East tournament to speed the game up, but this team still does not take care of the ball and struggles to put the ball through the orange circle.

The Pick: Michigan St. This team has the size in the front court, a star in Dreymond Green and an exciting point guard in Keith Appling. Tom Izzo is the best tournament coach in America because of the way his teams are built. In order to get far, you must be able to get rebounds, make free throws and play a grind-it-out game. His teams do and it has led Izzo to six final fours in 13 years. Izzo will make it seven for 14 after this season.

East Region

By now you have already heard that Fab Melo will not be able to play in the tournament due to eligibility issues. Syracuse was is the toughest region to begin with and with his absence, the road only gets tougher. Kansas St., Vanderbilt and Temple are all big barriers that Syracuse could face before a possible Elite Eight match-up versus Ohio St. Syracuse was already one of the worst rebounding teams in the country and with Melo gone, it could become disastrous for Syracuse.

The Favorite: Ohio St. The Buckeyes struggled offensively during portions of the conference schedule. Some of that can be attributed to the brutality that was the Big Ten this season. Others may point out the lack of bench play and scorers. Outside of Sullenger, Buford, Thomas and Craft, Ohio St. does not have the reliable guy come off the bench that could spark this team offensively. With that said, Ohio St. still has one of the best big men in the country, the best on-ball defender in the country (Aaron Craft in case you were wondering) and an outstanding defense.

The Dark-Horse: Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt has the best shooter in the country in John Jenkins, a dominant wing player in Jeffrey Taylor and a healthy Festus. They play well both offensively and defensively and are only one of two teams to beat Kentucky this seaosn. With that said this team is still coached by Kevin Stallings, who has tons of experience losing on the first day of the tournament, but the same can be said for other teams in this region.

Cinderella: Harvard. Tommy Amaker has done a spectacular job in getting this Harvard team back into the tournament for only the second time ever and the first over 60 years. The Crimson are the Ivy League champion and were ranked during the good portion of the season. Teams from the Ivy League have given teams trouble recently, just look at Cornell in 2010 and Princeton in 2011. Harvard will be a trendy pick to upset Vanderbilt because of the Commodores struggles in the first weekend of the tournament. The Crimson are not great offensively, but their defense and slow style of play could knock off a couple of teams.

Best Round 2 Game: Gonzaga vs. West Virginia. Mark Few has every right to be upset with the selection committee’s seeding. Gonzaga will travel all the way from the west coast to Pittsburgh, where it will essentially play a road game against West Virginia, whose campus is a short 70 mile drive from Pittsburgh. West Virginia has lost eight of their last 12 games, but the home court advantage could ignite some energy out of Huggy Bear’s team. Kevin Pangos will be the player to watch in this game. The sharp-shooting freshman is the Zag’s top scorer and has already posted two games this season in which he scored 30 points or more.

Best Potential Game: Ohio St. vs. Florida St. Both teams are great defensively and are the top 2 teams in this bracket, following the Fab Melo news. Jared Sullinger appears to have regained his form prior to the back injury he suffered in December. Florida St. enters this game having beaten North Carolina and Duke twice this season and boast a front court that could give Ohio St. trouble. Both teams are inconsistent offensively, which makes both teams a scary pick to escape this region. First one to 65 will probably win this game.

The X Factor: Deshaun Thomas. Thomas is the biggest weapon that Ohio St. possesses and is a match-up nightmare. At 6-7, he can play outside and bang in the paint. When his jumper is clicking, Ohio St. is nearly impossible to beat. Keeping him out of rhythm is a must for any team expecting to make it past the Buckeyes. He is the major reason why this team was able to recover from all of the departures from last season and is a big reason why the Buckeyes are capable of making it all the way to the championship game.

The Upset: Statistically Harvard should not be able to keep up with Vanderbilt, but the Commodores have a history of struggling in the first weekend and that cannot be said enough. Vanderbilt may be a trendy pick to upset Syracuse and make it to the Final Four, but they could easily lose this first game. Festus Ezeli will need to show up the way he did against Kentucky if Vanderbilt is going to make it past Harvard.

The Pick: Ohio St. I have been flip-flopping with this pick all week between Ohio St. and Florida St. Both teams have been wildly inconsistent, but I like the way Ohio St. looked going into the conference tournament and during the conference tournament. They seemed to be peaking at the right time and are finally healthy. Vanderbilt is the fools gold of the tournament. Too much stock has been put into their victory over Kentucky and it will likely show the first weekend of the tournament.

Midwest Region

North Carolina’s placement in the Midwest was a bit of a shocker, considering that the committee could have easily place Kentucky in St. Louis in order for easy travel for both teams. The toughest part of North Carolina’s draw is the fact that they could face Kansas in St. Louis. Kansas not only matches up well with Carolina, but they will essentially be playing a home game in St. Louis.

The Favorite: North Carolina. They are the only team in the tournament with the talent to match Kentucky’s. They have the best front court in the nation, one of the best point guards in Kendall Marshall and have a deep bench.The biggest question with this team is perimeter shooting and perimeter defense. As good as this team is, they are notorious for taking plays off defensively and allowing a lot of threes. This team has an abundance of talent, but lacks the killer instinct that you would expect from a championship caliber team.

The Dark-Horse: Georgetown. The Hoyas are a great defensive team and can shoot the ball extremely well from outside. Georgetown is a balanced team offensively and shares the ball well. The Hoyas have struggled a bit heading into the tournament, but could easily make it to an Elite Eight game against a team like North Carolina.

Cinderella: Belmont. The Bruins returned nearly everyone from last year’s tournament team and gave Duke a run for its money in Cameron earlier this season. Belmont is a great defensive team, have legitimate size in the front court and can score the ball efficiently. The Bruins have five guys, who average at least 9.8 points per game, and boast five guys that shoot at 40 percent or better from beyond the arc.

Best Round 2 Game: Georgetown vs. Belmont. This game will pit to great defensive teams, who like to shoot from outside. Belmont has never made it out of the first round of the tournament, but they might just break through this year. Because of their offensive fire-power, this could very well be this year’s version of VCU. Georgetown has yet to make it out of the first weekend following their Final Four appearance in 2007 and could very well continue that trend.

Best Potential Match-up: North Carolina vs Kansas. This is the game needs to happen. The basketball gods must guide these teams through the first three games of their bracket. Kansas has a legitimate player of the year candidate in Thomas Robinson and North Carolina has a roster filled with future pros. Kansas was formerly coached by Roy Williams and these two teams are among college basketball’s elite programs. With the game being in St. Louis, the crowd would heavily favor Kansas, but the environment will be electric.

The X-Factor: Bill Self. Bill Self is one of the strangest coaches to peg in the tournament. Every year he brings in a Kansas team that is among the top eight seeds and it always seems like they are given a favorable draw. But for some reason, his teams are known for losing games they shouldn’t. Self is epitome of a Jekyll and Hyde coach. He can win the big game as seen in 2008, but he can also lose the easy one as well, just look at the games against Bucknell, Northern Iowa and VCU. If he can navigate his team to the Elite Eight, this team could make it to New Orleans.

The Pick: Kansas. History has never shown favor to a team that was blown out the way North Carolina was way back in February and a potential road game against Kansas could reinforce it. Kansas received a very favorable draw and could have easily been a 1-seed in the tournament this year. Thomas Robinson, Tyshawn Taylor and the emergence of Jeff Whitey will carry this Jayhawk squad all the way back to the Final Four.

Final Four

Kentucky vs Michigan St.

Ohio St. vs Kansas

National Champion

Kentucky. This team steamrolled opponents throughout conference play. They looked uninterested in last week’s conference tournament because of the fact that their number one seed was secured. John Calipari seems to have gotten to his players following the loss to Vanderbilt. This team is the best defensive teams in the country and one of the best offensive teams as well. Anthony Davis is the player of the year and is the biggest defensive presence college basketball has seen in nearly two decades. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is the heart and soul of this team and has an extreme will to win. Darius Miller and Terrence Jones are the two biggest factors for this team. If either or both go off offensively, it is going to be a long night for teams. Kentucky can beat you in too many ways and will finally hang their eighth banner.