The 2011-2012 Butler Bulldogs are not the same group of players that went to back-to-back final fours while beating up on perenial college basketball powerhouses. They are not the same team that has won four straight Horizon League regular-season titles. They are not the same veteran led time that wasn’t scared to play anyone. In fact, this year’s Butler men’s basketball team is quite the opposite – young and unproven.
Coach Brad Stevens has a lot on his mind right now after a 4-6 start.
After Saturday’s loss to Ball State, Butler’s record now stands at 4 wins and 6 loses with an 0-4 record against in-state schools (Indiana, Valpo, Evansville, and Ball State).
This is not exactly what basketball fans have come to expect since Brad Stevens took over the reigns in Indianapolis 5 years ago, but has become the unfortunate reality of the 2011-2012 season thus far.
The question, though, remains – will it get any better for the Bulldogs? A closer look at the numbers suggests that things might get worse before they get better, but if Butler can correct its offensive struggles, the Bulldogs are going to be a team no one wants to see late in the season once again.
Butler beat writer David Woods reported prior to the Ball State game:
Out of 345 Division I teams, Butler is 300th in field goal percentage (.395), according to ESPN.com. Deduct the 35-of-77 (.455) game against Oakland City, a Division II opponent, and Butler would be shooting .383 for 314th place.
Saturday, the Bulldogs only shot .308 against Ball State including 3-22 (.136) from 3-point land. Factor in the upcoming schedule, Butler, at 4-6, with games against Purdue, at Gonzaga, and at Standford coming up, Stevens and Co. could see its record drop to an unprecedented 4-9, which would extend its current losing steak to 6 games. So how could it possibly get better?
This Butler team WILL get better and WILL become the team that opponents have come to dread – and no I am not just looking ahead to next year with the additions of Rotnei Clark and Kellen Dunham. I challenge Butler fans to stop swearing at their TV set and posting their emotional analysis on message boards. Instead, take a minute to digest how close this extremely young and inexperienced team is from being great.
Despite the awful offensive shooting percentages and early losses, when you break it down, Butler is only 2 FT’s and a FG from being 7-3 with losses coming to two Top10 ranked teams and a true road game to in-state rival IU (who after the past two seasons has something to prove against the Bulldogs and took down #1 Kentucky at Assembly Hall last night). Instead of declaring the apocolypse is near, Butler fans would be once again praising the coaching staff and the young talent that continues to come in and step up year in and year out. The reality is that Butler fans have been spoiled the past few years and that the majority of freshmen and seldom used players around the country need time to adapt to the college game and find their roles – no matter how highly touted they were in high school. Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack were exceptions. Matt Howard was an exception.
Rose Jones, Kameron Woods, Jackson Aldridge, Andy Smeathers, Erik Fromm – just might not be exceptions and that should be understood instead of criticized. Chrishawn Hopkins, in his first season of significant minutes, might not be an exception, yet he shows flashes of brilliance that should one day bring him back to the starting lineup. Khyle Marshall is as close to an exception as they come on the current team, and even he started on the bench on Saturday. Yes, the play of Ronald Nored, Chase Stigall, and Andrew Smith has been less than stellar from veterans who played in a a national championship game a few months ago, but could it be that those three are simply trying too hard to fit into roles they are not made for? Nored has been more offensive minded this year than the 3 years combined, Smith is launching 3’s like he is Pete Campbell, and Stigall is trying to replace Mack and Haywards point distribution. These players can be molded into better defenders and shooters, but changing a player’s actual role isn’t something that happens overnight.
Once the roles on the team are figured out, Nored can go back to lock-down defense, Stigall can go back to being a three-point threat instead of being the focus of everyone’s perimeter defense, and Smith will continue to battle and get tougher all while Khyle Marshall, and the rest of the young Dawgs develop into the players Brad Stevens recruited them for.
Butler will ultimately lose more games this season, but when (not if) the inexperience turns into confidence, the Bulldogs will once again sit amongst the nation’s best.
I think after the miraculous run Butler made not just one year but the last two years, they are back to leveling out. They have a lot of quality young pieces so the future is there.
As you said poor shooting, plus turnovers and bad decisions don’t equate to wins. I also wonder where leadership is coming from. Matt Howard has been that guy and I’m sure Nored provides some.
There are a lot of missing parts with this Butler squad who still, will probably finish top-3 in the Horizon League. Steven’s does a great job coaching but things are a bit messy right now and they will continue until more league play. Purdue on Saturday in front of a nationally televised CBS audience.
You sure are positive for a team that hasn’t done much this season. A terrible exhibition loss and now they seem to pile up. I’d be curious as to what Coach believes is responsible for the disappointing starrt. It’s one thing to lose to a ranked Xavier team or Indiana (and I respect the tough opponents Butler signs up to play), but there’s also something to winning, and winning early.