No, not with the first pick. The Colts (correctly so) will announce Andrew Luck’s name around 8:15 Thursday night to become the new franchise quarterback.
But the Colts are in a unique position. Reggie Wayne is a grizzled veteran, and outside of him the Colts don’t have much to offer Luck at the wide receiving position. So why not give him a top flight wide receiver to grow with.
Justin Blackmon from Oklahoma State has been called by some the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson. He’s been called a more intelligent Dez Bryant. Blackmon dominated secondaries to the tune of 121 receptions for 1522 yards and 18 touchdowns.
Outside of Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, he was college football’s biggest difference maker. Luck knows all about that. Blackmon caught 8 passes for 186 yards and 3 touchdowns in OK St’s 41-38 OT win over Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl
But for what ever reason, likely due to team needs, many are projecting him to be drafted sixth, or even lower. Two CBS draft experts have him going ninth and 10th. This should have Ryan Grigson and Jim Irsay’s internal alarm ringing.
For all intents and purposes, the Colts will likely be picking top 10, and a possibility of top 5 next season too. Their 2013 1st round pick has a lot of value, at least in its current state.
If Blackmon is sitting there at six, and the Rams are on the clock, I’m offering my 2013 1st round pick, and the 2012 second round pick. According to the NFL draft trade value chart, the Colts would likely be over paying, unless they pick 16th or worse in 2013 – but he’s worth it.
In fact, Jeff Fisher told ESPN the Rams are not against trading down again in the draft to receive more draft picks. If the Rams were to agree to such a deal they would be beyond set up in future draft. Here is what their 1st and 2nd round picks would look like from 2012-2014 under the current deal:
2012:
Colts 2nd round pick
Rams 2nd round pick
2013:
Colts 1st round pick
Rams 1st round pick
Redskins 1st round pick
Rams 2nd round pick
2014
Rams 1st round pick
Redskins 1st round pick
Rams 2nd round pick
Redskins 2nd round pick
This would set the Rams up with 3 likely top-10 picks in 2013, 5 second round picks in the next three years, and 2 1st round picks in 2014. All of that just for not picking in the first round this year. Seems pretty attractive
Blackmon could grow up with Andrew Luck, similar to Calvin Johnson has with Matt Stafford. We’ve seen how well that has worked, and Stafford wasn’t near the prospect Luck is. It would also allow Blackmon to learn from one of the best – Reggie Wayne.
In fact it would be eerily similar to what Wayne was privileged with under Marvin Harrison.
If Blackmon falls even later than six, this deal becomes even more of a no-brainer. The 2013 draft, as of now, does not feature a WR prospect as good as Blackmon, and while the 2012 2nd round pick has value, it’s essentially picking where the Colts are used to – end of the first round, which we’ve seen can be anyone’s guess as to how the player pans out.
It’s very likely this Colts team will be built very different than the last. You likely won’t see a three-headed monster with the proficiency of Manning, James, Harrison. Grigson and Pagano are dedicated to building a much better defense to put around Luck, and not needing to win games 49-42.
But if you are going to invest in the next franchise quarterback, it would be silly not to give him some one to throw to. You don’t buy a $40 steak, then stick it in the microwave. You cook it on a nice grill.
Justin Blackmon is a pretty darn nice grill.
Blackmon isn’t worth the value of a pick for next year. He’s a great player, but there are teams that legitimately believe he’s not even the best receiver in this draft. I disagree with those teams, but the point is he’s not an irreplaceable talent. If the Colts want a receiver there will be at least one of them available to take with their second round pick like a Reuben Randle or Stephen Hill should he fall. There’s a gap in talent there, but not one that’s worth a top 5 pick. If they want to move up, they should look at Colby Fleener because he has familiarity with Luck, the Colts don’t have any tight ends, and the Colts appear to plan on running the ball and using TE’s this year.