It’s that time of year again, March Madness, otherwise known as the best month of the year where you can call in sick to work and skip classes without any second thoughts. What’s not to like about that?
The tournament never disappoints and this year promises to be crazy as ever. In a season where seemingly no one could keep the number one ranking, let alone stay in the top five, this March has the potential to be one of the most memorable.
The brackets were released two days ago and everyone is in a frenzy trying to pick the perfect one. Well, ladies and gentlemen, look no further. Here are all the ins and outs you need to know when filling out your bracket. (Of course, everything I say will probably be wrong.)
The Favorites:
1. Louisville (1 seed, Midwest): To all my fellow Indiana Hoosiers, I’m sorry, but the Louisville Cardinals have earned the right to be the favorite entering the tournament. Led by Gorgui Dieng, the Cardinals have the top defense in the nation. They also boast the top backcourt in nation with Peyton Siva and Russ Smith and just won the Big East tournament, no small task. And let’s not forget they have Rick Pitino on the sidelines. Although their bracket is the toughest, they will survive.
2. Indiana Hoosiers (1 seed, East): The Hoosiers have the most impressive resume entering the tournament. They boast wins over several high profile teams and have the best offense in the nation. They can explode at any time and have a much-improved defense. With Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo leading the way, the Hoosiers will be a force. They are strong at every position and have a good mix of youth and experience. If they can take care of the ball and get contributions from the bench beyond Will Sheehey, watch out.
3. Duke (2 seed, Midwest): The Blue Devils had some bouts with inconsistency in ACC play, but they were missing Ryan Kelly. With Ryan Kelly in the lineup they are 18-1 and that’s tough to ignore. Mason Plumlee can be frustrating at times, but when he is engaged, he is among the premier talents in America. Seth Curry has matured as a point guard and, obviously, can shoot it. Coach K can’t hurt either.
4. Michigan State (3 seed, Midwest): Tom Izzo. That’s really all that needs to be said in March; you just don’t bet against an Izzo team. And this is a prototypical Izzo team. Adreian Payne is turning into an absolute force, Derrick Nix is a physical player down low and Gary Harris has come on in the second half of the season. They also are season after playing one of the toughest regular season schedules of any team.
5. Florida (3 seed, South): There is no denying Florida’s talent, and they have it at every position. They are an underrated defensive team and this group has been to back-to-back Elite Eights. They have trouble closing games, but if they can just make enough plays, Billy Donovan and his Gators could cut down the nets. Florida is in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Very impressive.
These are your top five contenders. With all do respect to other teams (Kansas, Georgetown, Ohio State, Miami) I don’t think they have what it takes this year.
Potential Sleepers:
I don’t necessarily think any of the teams will win it all, but they could definitely get to an Elite Eight and, maybe, steal a Final Four spot.
1. Michigan (4 seed, South): Michigan is a tough team to figure out. They looked dominant for much of the season, and faded at the end. They are only 6-6 in their last 12 games, which is concerning, including a terrible loss to Penn State. However, there is no denying the talent, led by Big Ten Player of the Year Trey Burke. A month ago, they were a favorite to win it all.
2. Saint Louis ( 4 seed, Midwest): Part of the loaded Midwest bracket, St. Louis has flown under the radar nationally, but, make no mistake, this team is for real. Led by point guard Kwamain Mitchell and Dwyane Evans, this team is experienced, defends and takes care of the ball. They won both the regular season and conference tournament title in the A-10, no small feat. They also beat Butler three times this year, that’s not easy.
3. Pittsburgh (8 seed, West): The Panthers rank top in the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They also are a great rebounding team. That is a recipe for success in the tournament. They slow the ball down and look to pound teams (a la Wisconsin). They have no stars, but are deep and, most importantly, they have a favorable job. If they get past Wichita State in the first round, they will likely face Gonzaga, a very beatable one-seed. And the Sweet Sixteen would bring them a likely match up with Wisconsin or Kansas State. It would take a run, but an Elite Eight is not a crazy thought.
4. VCU (5 seed, South): VCU being a sleeper pick in the tournament is hardly going out on a limb these days. But, once again, Shaka Smart and his Havoc defense will have a chance to advance far. They will beat Akron, who lost their starting point guard this week, and would then have to, most likely, take down Michigan (another team i listed as a sleeper, I have no faith in Kansas unless Ben McLemore goes off). VCU forces a turnover on 28.6 percent of its opponents possessions, by far the most in the nation. They play their crazy up-tempo style as well as anyone.
First Round Upsets:
1. 11 Belmont over 6 Arizona: Arizona was once thought to be a serious contender, but those days seem long gone. They are just 5-5 in their last 10 games and, while there is talent, it has been too inconsistent. Belmont leads the nation in two-point shooting percentage and is second in the nation in effective field-goal percentage. Arizona struggles to guard the three and Belmont’s Ian Clark shoots 46.3 percent behind the line while averaging 18.1 points. Arizona is simply not playing well.
2. 11 Minnesota over 6 UCLA: Minnesota has been inconsistent since their blazing start to the season. However, they played a tough schedule in the Big Ten, had a big win over Indiana, and there is definitely talent on the Gophers roster. What really helps them is UCLA just lost Jordan Adams, who may be the most important player on UCLA’s roster. UCLA was starting to look like they could contend, but with his loss, there is almost no chance, he was that important.
3. 12 Ole Miss over 5 Wisconsin: The Badgers are a very good team. They defend well, rebound well, lead the nation in fewest turnovers per game and rarely beat themselves. They have also beat Indiana twice this season. But, this has always been the case with Wisconsin, and Bo Ryan has been to only one Elite Eight. Ole Miss is hot right now, coming off an SEC tournament title, in which they defeated Florida. They are strong on the offensive end and have a player in Marshall Henderson who is capable of going for 30 any night. Common sense would say Wisconsin wins, but beware.
Rules to Abide By:
1. Don’t bet against the Big Ten: Recently, the Big Ten has not fared all that well in the Big Dance. It is well documented that the Big Ten’s last title came in 2000. But, this year it was far and away the best conference in the nation. Indiana, Michigan State and Ohio State have legitimate chances to win a championship. The teams beat up on each other all season. Even Michigan was at one time considered a favorite to win it. After the way the Big Ten dominated in the regular season, and each team passed the eye test, I wouldn’t want to bet against the conference.
2. Don’t believe in Kansas: Don’t get me wrong, Kansas is a very good team. They may well make the Elite Eight, maybe even the Final Four. But, they have no chance to win it all. Sure, it was a fluke, but they still lost to TCU. Their biggest issue is their point guard Elijah Johnson. It’s hard to win without good point guard play and Elijah Johnson has been very inconsistent. He turns the ball over, doesn’t make great decisions and struggles to create much offense at times. Even when the team plays well, he is still average. Ben McLemore is fantastic, but he’s a freshmen.
3. Believe in Miami (FL): The Hurricanes have struggled down the stretch a bit, finishing just 3-3 in their last six games. But, this team has a lot of talent and is a force to be reckoned with. Shane Larkin is a flat out stud. He can shoot, beat you off the dribble and has maintained composure in big games. Durand Scott can shoot lights out, and Reggie Johnson and Kenny Kadji can bang down low. They are one of the oldest teams in the tournament and, while they don’t have much tournament experience, coach Jim Larranaga has been to a Final Four and will be a calming influence. They also beat Duke by 27, which should never be overlooked. They will have to get by Indiana to get to a Final Four, but I believe they will have more than a chance if that game occurs.
There you have it. This is your full guide when filling out your bracket. Trust me, don’t trust me, at the end of the day all of our brackets will probably be up in flames after the first weekend.
follow me on twitter: @samtdevoe